Um novo estudo liderado por pesquisadores do Instituto Internacional de Análise de Sistemas Aplicados (IIASA) propõe um novo método para estimar o bem-estar econômico global usando imagens de satélite noturnas.
Apesar dos sucessos na redução da pobreza globalmente nas últimas duas décadas, quase um bilhão de pessoas ainda vivem sem acesso a eletricidade confiável e acessível, o que, por sua vez, afeta negativamente a saúde e o bem-estar e impede o desenvolvimento sustentável. É fundamental saber onde essas pessoas estão localizadas para que a assistência e a infraestrutura possam alcançá-las. Um novo estudo de pesquisa propõe um novo método para estimar o bem-estar econômico global usando imagens de satélite noturnas.
Por quase 30 anos, pesquisadores usaram imagens de satélite da Terra à noite para estudar a atividade humana, e está bem estabelecido que essas imagens – comumente chamadas de radiância noturna ou luzes noturnas – podem ajudar a mapear questões como crescimento econômico, pobreza e desigualdade, particularmente em áreas onde os dados são escassos.
Locais não iluminados à noite em países subdesenvolvidos geralmente implicam baixo desenvolvimento, enquanto áreas brilhantemente iluminadas sugerem lugares altamente desenvolvidos, como capitais com rica infraestrutura.
Tradicionalmente, os pesquisadores estão mais interessados em usar os dados coletados das áreas iluminadas com áreas não iluminadas sendo normalmente desconsideradas. Em seu novo estudo que será publicado hoje (5 de maio de 2022) na revista Comunicações da NaturezaInstituto Internacional de Análise de Sistemas Aplicados ([{” attribute=””>IIASA) researchers and colleagues from several other institutions, however, specifically focused on the data from the unlit areas to estimate global economic wellbeing.
“Whereas previous work has focused more on the relationship between lit areas and economic development, we found that it actually also works the other way around and that unlit areas are a good indicator of poverty. By identifying those unlit areas we can target interventions for poverty alleviation and places to focus on to improve energy access,” explains study author and IIASA Strategic Initiatives Program Director, Steffen Fritz.
The researchers used a harmonized geospatial wealth index for households in various countries across Africa, Asia, and the Americas calculated by the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program, which places individual households on a continuous scale of relative wealth from poorer to richer. They then combined this data with data from satellite images of global nighttime lights in these countries and found that 19% of the planet’s total settlement footprint had no detectable artificial radiance associated with it. The majority of unlit settlement footprints were found in Africa (39%) and Asia (23%). If only rural unlit infrastructure is considered, these numbers rise to 65% for Africa and 40% for Asia. In almost all countries, the results indicate a clear association between increasing percentages of unlit communities in a country and decreasing economic wellbeing levels.
“We were able to map and predict the wealth class of around 2.4 million households for 49 countries spread across Africa, Asia, and the Americas based on the percentage of unlit settlements detected using nighttime light satellite images with an overall accuracy of 87%. Surprisingly, there were also relatively large amounts of unlit settlements in developed countries, in particular Europe. There can be several reasons for this result, including the fact that the satellite overpass is after midnight, but it could also be due to conscientious energy and cost saving policies in Europe by homeowners, governments, and industry,” says IIASA Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group Leader, Ian McCallum, who led the study.
The researchers note that government agencies typically prioritize expanding electricity access for urban, rather than rural areas. Rural electrification however holds great promise for increasing wellbeing and can also have significant positive impacts in terms of household income, expenditure, health, and education. The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) specifically include ‘access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’ and while efforts are underway to achieve this goal, and substantial progress has been made over the past two decades, indications are that governments and industry will struggle to keep pace with expected population growth.
In sub-Saharan Africa in particular, projections indicate that over 300 million people will still be living in extreme poverty by 2030. The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to push an additional 88 to 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2030, setting back the UN’s goals to reduce poverty by around three years. Studies like this one can however help track developing countries as they electrify and developed nations as they reduce their light-energy consumption.
“If applied over time, the method we used in our study could provide opportunities to track wellbeing and progress toward the SDGs. In terms of policy, it can help better inform energy policy around the globe and can also be helpful in shaping aid policy by ensuring that we are reaching those remote rural areas that are likely energy poor. In addition, it could be useful to detect signs of sustainable and environmental management of lighting in the developed world,” concludes Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions Research Group Leader, Shonali Pachauri.
Reference: “Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements” by McCallum, I., Kyba, C.C.M., Laso Bayas, J.C., Moltchanova, E., Cooper, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Pachauri, S., See, L., Danylo, O., Moorthy, I., Lesiv, M., Baugh, K., Elvidge, C.D., Hofer, M., Fritz, S., 5 May 2022, Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30099-9
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